British Open Preview 2010
It only seems like yesterday I was watching the great Tom Watson battling it out down the stretch of the British Open with Stewart Cink, Lee Westwood and Retief Goosen. However it wasn’t yesterday and one year on, this great championship is upon us again, even more special this year in that it returns to the home of golf at St Andrews. Jack Nicklaus famously said you cannot claim to have reached the pinnacle until such time as you have won the Open at St Andrews. Tiger Woods reiterated those sentiments this week by claiming that “this is the one they all want to win”
Tom Watson again returns to have another crack at the whip and with the form he is in, he must be quietly confident, even if his odds would suggest otherwise. Scrolling through the list of names, I see the likes of Nick Faldo, Peter Senior, Sandy Lyle and Mark O’Meara gracing us without their presence but the bigger story for me is the omission of the former European maestro Seve Ballesteros. Although due to compete this week, Seve has been advised by doctors not to compete and not to travel to the famous old links. As a result, the golfing public misses out on what was sure to be an extraordinary and emotional return. If Norman, Watson et all have taught us anything in the recent past, it’s that “there is fight in the old dog yet”. No one could epitomize this phrase more so though than Severiano Ballesteros over the past few years in his battle with cancer. Our best wishes go out to Seve in his recovery and we remain hopeful that we will still see him back at a future British Open.
With that being said, it’s no down to the task of picking a winner of the Claret Jug. My brother Ian and I are have quite a competitive battle when it comes to picking the winners of majors this year. We both had McDowell at the US Open but Im one up on him since I had Phil Mickelson in Augusta. Initially, we were going to come together with our top 5 for this week, but to add a bit of spice into the mix, we have gone our separate ways and each come up with our top 5 tips. Surprisingly, we only have one man in common so you will have an array of stats and reasons thrown at you for the remainder of this post. SO, without further haste, lets begin with Ian.
Ian’s Top 5 (in no particular order)
1. Francesco Molinari each way @ 70/1
I tipped Francesco last week and I will tip him again this week. It is quite obvious that if Francesco Molinari could putt well, he would climb rapidly up the world rankings. He has been tied second and tied fourth in his last two outings and last year he finished tied thirteenth in the Open Championship. There is no doubt that Molinari will be in the top ten at the weekend in terms of ball striking and perhaps it might just make up for his putting woes. His odds came tumbling down in the last two weeks but the odds of 70/1 are still generous. If Molinari can putt well, he will go very close.
2. Steve Stricker each way @ 40/1
Now to tip quite possibly the best putter golf has ever seen. Steve Stricker won last week in the John Deere classic and his odds have stayed at 40/1, which seem very generous for the former world number two. He is a good ball striker, but it’s when he gets the flat stick in his hand that the magic starts to happen. He turns into some Harry Potter like character and the putter is his magic wand. His win last week was his second of the year and he has put a third place in with that record to make it look all the more impressive. He has done well in the Open Championship in recent years, finishing tied eighth in 2007 and tied seventh in 2008.
3. Jim Furyk each way @ 40/1
Jim Furyk is another player who has a chance at taking the title home with him. The tall American seems to have the perfect game for St Andrews. On the PGA Tour he hits seventy percent of the fairways he goes for and his greens in regulation stats aren’t too shabby either. He also has a good short game and is a strong putter, which are two things you need for links golf, especially if the wind is up. The world number five has only won one major in his career but has amassed four top five finishes in the Open Championship, two of which came in the last four years. He has won twice on the PGA Tour already this year and who’s to say he won’t win again.
4. Shane Lowry Top Irishman @ 13/1
Okay, now for a somewhat unlikely tip. Shane Lowry is playing in his first Open Championship and there’s no doubt that he’ll be excited and eager to make an impression. Can he handle this potential weight on his shoulders? I suspect so. The young Irishman is no stranger to links golf after winning the Irish Open last year as an amateur on a links course. He recorded a seventh place last week and despite having only one top five this year, he should feel extremely comfortable on links golf, regardless of the weather. He is 125/1 for the championship but the bet that appeals to me is that he’s 13/1 to be the top Irishman in the field.
5. Alejandro Canizares - Top Spaniard @ 6/1
As my last tip, I think that Alejandro Canizares might be a worth a punt to be the top Spanish player at the end of the tournament. Ultimately he is in good form and a lot of his fellow Spanish aren’t. Like Shane Lowry, it is his first Open Campionship but he has the game to succeed. He was tied second in France two weeks ago and despite making the cut last week in Loch Lomond last week he was disappointing, but he is only twenty seven and I would expect to see him bounce back in the Open. As I said his fellow Spanish aren’t looking too hot to do well this week. Garcia’s game is in the doldrums, Jimenez seemed to suffer severe burnout from his win in France and was very disappointing in Loch Lomond, Quiros has been known to spray one or two balls a bit wide of the mark which won’t serve him well for St Andrews, Castano is in very poor form, Garrido missed the cut last week and Lara is also in poor form. With odds of 6/1 Canizares stands out for me.
James Top 5 (in no particular order)
1. Rory McIlroy each way @16/1
If there is one man who everyone should consider backing it has to be the young Irishman, Rory McIlroy. I backed him two months ago at 25/1 for this championship and I have never been happier with one of my selections heading into a major championship. McIlroy is quite fond of St Andrews you know. His worst score on this course is 69, not too shabby one would have to agree. Furthermore, the Alfred Dunhill Links is played in St Andrews every year and in the last three years, Rory has finished 3rd, Tied 8th and Tied 2nd last year. He is on record as saying that the course is probably his favorite of all and add into the mix that he has publicly stated the confidence boost he has received from his best mate McDowell’s win in the US Open, and everything seems to fall into place nicely. His putting is the only concern I have but with the weather set to be extremely punishing over the next 4 days, the fact McIlroy has grown up on links golf further boosts the credentials. We all know he is the potential World number 1 in waiting such is the quality of his golf. This week the sun, moon and stars have all aligned in perfect position and they are screaming McIlroys name. While 16/1 is pretty low, with Paddy Power paying out on top 7, you cannot ignore this bet.
2. Padraig Harrington each way @ 22/1
I have gone through the lists and the records and I weighed up who would be my second selection from the big names to back up my selection of Rory McIlroy. Woods, Els, Mickelson and Rose figured strongly in my reckoning but in the end, it came down to one of two between Westwood and Harrington. Westwoods form over the past year has been scintillating and his record in the Dunhill is equally impressive. Harrington also has some fine form in the Dunhill Links. His last 5 years at the event has seen him finish T3, 1, T8. T13 and T26 last year. Having won 2 Opens in the past 3 years, he also should have the confidence to finish the job should he be in contention coming down the stretch. I still do not think Harringtons game is where he would ideally like it to be but considering the weather conditions expected this week, winning the Open could come down to a real dog fight and a battle of the wills. There are not too many in Harrington’s league when it comes to the mental side of the game. His exquisite short game, mixed in with his discipline and patience, means he has a real each way chance. I do think it is imperative he gets off to a good start this week though to get his confidence up.
3. Francesco Molinari each way at 70/1
I wont go into further detail than what Ian has said above about this man. Having watched him more closely this year and especially last week at Loch Lomond where his ball striking was sensational, there is no doubt the Italian has the game to a major. As Ian eluded to, if he puts well, he contends, if not, he doesn’t. I believe it is as simple as that but at 70/1, Im willing to take that bet.
4. Robert Allenby each way @ 100/1
After the first few months of this season, I decided that Robert Allenby would be one to watch out for at the Open Championship. His ball strinking is excellent, his putting has improved no end and he is a solid driver of a golf ball. However, when he gets around the greens, he’s not exactly Harrington-esque! Truth be told, he has in my opinion one of the most ordinary short games among the professionals on tour. As we all know though, at St Andrews, the preferred choice is often the texas wedge…i.e. the putter. The open Championship should suit Allenby in that he is tough as old boots and the set up of links golf means he wont be forced to nip too many wedge shots off those oh so tight lies. Taking all this into consideration, I struggled to figure out why he was priced at 100/1. The reason may have to do with a recent niggling injury he has been carrying. Perhaps it has not cleared to the full extent that I had believed, in which case, odds of 100/1 may be justified. Im quietly confident that a fit Allenby can hang around the top of the leaderboard should he make his way up there.
5. Soren Hansen each way @ 150/1
As I searched for a big priced name I could recommend I came across the likes of Darren Clarke, Tom Watson and John Daly, each of whom appealed for various reasons. The more I searched though, the more the name Soren Hansen appealed to me. Over the past 3 years, Hansen has finished T8 twice in the Alfred Dunhill at St Andrews. He also finished T8 at the British Open last year, in addition to T6 at the US Open. This further highlights the credentials of Hansen as a big player on tough course in testing conditions. His form over the past months however has been anything but inspiring with 3 missed cuts in his last 7 tournaments. But hey, that’s why he is 150/1 and thats why he possibly presents great value. His overall game is solid, he is a gritty competitor and once he gets the bit between his teeth, he has a habit of hanging around leaderboards. Im hoping he might be able to squeeze somewhere into the top 7 although I admit, it’s a bit of a longshot. 150/1 seems too generous to refuse though.
Summary
So there you have, our top tips for the Open. Im happy with my selections but would cast doubt on Ians selection of Lowry. The likes of McIlroy, Harrington, McDowell will make it extremely tough to top that illustrious list. One quick thing I should point out as an Irishman, we have now won 4 of the past 14 majors, thats an incredible 29% strike rate. Plastered all over Sky Sports and Sky Sports News are interviews with what they refer to as their top British selections, headed by McDowell and McIlroy. Lets get this straight, both men played for Ireland at the latest World Cup so lay off the British tag. They are Irish. You boys can gloat when one of your English boys finally wins a major. Here in Ireland we know it’s been a long time since Nick Faldo gave you reason to toast success at a major back in 1996 (yes, that long!!!!) but trust me, it will happen again. Until then, sit tight, relax and enjoy the Irish show.
P.S - On Betfair there was a blog entitled Top 10 Brits for the Open and as well as including McIlroy and McDowell, he actually included Harrington. Unless you guys are planning an evasion to overcome the recent recession, surely we can still claim Harrington as Irish??? Out of respect, I wont mention the author but c’mon, a little respect please!
P.P.S - One of my mates just text me there saying Luke Donald equalled the course record at the Old Head of Kinsale yesterday in strong winds. No doubt a big confidence boost for Donald and perhaps something for you betting folk to consider. Doing it the week before the British Open and doing it the weak of the British Open are two different things though. Im sticking with my selections!
