At long last the 2009 Masters has arrived. Once again we get to witness the greatest players in the world competing on what must be regarded as the most stunning golf course in the world. The past two years has seen somewhat underdogs, Zach Johnson and Trevor Immelman, walk away with their first Green Jackets. It could be we see another less fancied name prevail this week but I for one think the 2009 Masters could be one of the best in history, with the many of the top names in contention come Friday.
The feel to this Masters is different. Tiger Woods is back and eager to stamp his authority on the game. Golf has missed Woods and he immediately raises the excitement levels. However, all the players will now want to prove they can beat him and with Woods long game suspect, Harrington, Mickelson, Garcia, Casey, Ogilvy et all will be priming themselves for a major they believe they can, with or without Woods. Lets take a closer look and the leading contenders as well as some of the outsiders who could spring a surprise
Well what can you say about Tiger Woods (5/2)? Wins the US Open last year on one leg, subsequently misses the rest of the season after knee surgery and astonishingly, wins in his 3rd tournament back. Just 2 shy of Jack Nicklaus major record haul, you can rest assured he will catch and exceed Nicklaus’ tally of 18. At the beginning of the year, I told you my top tip would be to back Woods at 4/5 to win A major….Im still happy with this. However, what of this week? Woods is hot favourite, best priced at 5/2 and coming off a win in his last tournament, has regained the confidence to win. Last year, he would have possibly won except for a stone cold putter on Sunday. I cant imagine he will have any such putting woes this year and you can bank on Woods being there or thereabouts on Sunday. At 5/2 though, I think I will look for greater value elsewhere. Good driving is probably not the most important asset in Augusta with the rough being relatively short, but I would be concerned that unless Woods powers of recovery and putting are not 100%, he could fritter away a couple of needless shots. These could be all important. If Woods leaves the driver in the bag and goes with 3-wood only, I couldnt see him beaten. However, the driver continue to take preference up to now.
Phil Mickelson (9/1) was absolutely terrible on the greens last week, leading many to question whether or not he will be able to cope with the greens this week in Augusta. I think this is nonsense! Mickelson now for the past few years has been susceptible to some astonishing putting woes and sprays his drives around like an out of control power hose. Based on this, you would presume he has struggled….not the case. He is number 2 in the World and has already won twice in his last 3 starts this season. Even including Woods, he is still the most exciting golfer to watch because he ALWAYS attacks every pin, pulls off chip shots that no-one else in the game can and holes ridiculous putts when hot! It is almost inevitable that during the course of this week we will see Phip hole a chip shot at some stage. Now, if I havent convinced you of his chances yet, his Masters record will do so: T6 in 1999, T7 in 2000, 3rd in 2001, 3rd in 2002, 3rd in 2003, 1st in 2004, 10th in 2005, 1st in 2006, T24th in 2007 (after a 77 on Sunday) and T5 in 2008. So, in the past 10 years, Mickelson has 9 top 10 finishes. For anyone looking for somebody to give them a run for their money and topple Woods, how could you not have a bet on Mickelson.
Irishman Padraig Harrington (18/1) is looking to continue his quest for the “Paddy Slam” and if he pulls it off, there will not be too many people begrudge him such is his likeability and dedication to the game. He is on par with Woods when it comes to the mental side of the game. Mistakes will be made this week but Harrington has the charcter to put these behind him immediately, which is something many professionals struggle with in the search for perfection. Worryingly, he has struggled with his game this season and in particular, his driving. Listening to BBC’s Ken Brown yesterday though, Harrington is hitting a lovely faint draw on the range and happy with it. His putting has not been as sharp as usual either but this is a major and Harringtons game is now geared only towards these. His career will ultimately be defined on these major results and he has already won 3 in the past two seasons. The Woods hype will not phase him in the slightest and his gritty determination is worth a couple of shots over most in the field this week. He has had two top 10’s in the past 2 years and likes the course. Always guaranteed to give you 100%, Harrington is many peoples top each way bet, best priced at 19/1.
Geoff Ogilvy has had a great season and is tipped by many to do well this year. Undoubtedly a class player who is simply silky smooth under pressure, Ogilvy’s record in the Masters is not great. Add to this the fact that no Australian has EVER won the Masters and the records/stats are against Ogilvy. A solid start is imperative for Ogilvy and if in contention come Sunday, watch out Tiger.
Paul Casey is Europes in form player, winning in Dubai and then getting to the final of the Accenture World Matchplay before adding his first career win in America last week. It is always difficult to win 2 weeks in a row but Casey is an extremely confident young man whose place in golf should be challenging for the top honours. When he is in form, as he is now, his iron shots are majestic, straight down the throat of pins. Like Mickelson, he will make mistakes such is his aggression. However, if he can adopt Harringtons attitude and put the bad holes behind him, he can challenge. This season he has displayed a greater level of maturity which is hugley encouraging for the punters and Sky Bet cut his odds from 50/1 to 25/1 after last weeks victory with a lot of money going down on the popular Englishman. One must also remember that he was in contention heading into Sunday last year before a disastrous final round of 79. If Casey is in contention come this Sunday, expect a much more accomplished and mature final round.
Others:
Sergio Garcia is still one of the best ball strikers in the game but his putting stroke is as bad I can remember. There is no confidence there whatsoever and coming off a missed cut last year in this event, it is difficult to beleive he can win outright.
Rory McIlroy is special. He will win majors and the hope is that he can even challenge Woods in the not too distant future, similar to what Garcia had threatened to do when he was a young and up-and-coming professional. However, not even the great Tiger could win this event on his first go and it is therefore a lot to expect of McIlroy to do so. A good week for him would be to make the cut and perhaps even a top 20. With such talents though, who knows?
Swedes Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stenson are fancied outsiders. Karlsson last year had a fantastic run in the majors and after being crowned last years Europe number 1, confidence is high. He certainly has the long game to challenge this week but will need the putter to behave. Stenson on the other hand has had a solid start to the season, has legend Fanny Sunneson on the bag and is one who has a perfect patient temperament to hang in there until the end.
Anthony Kim is another prospect who is inconsistent to say the least, but has the game. However, i just think he gets a little too pumped up in critical situations. To win here, the attitude needs to be spot on and a calm head on experienced shoulders counts for a lot around here.
My Verdict:
At 5/2, I dont want to back Woods, although I admit, he is difficult to oppose. So, for value, I am going with Phil Mickelson at 9/1 and Paul Casey at at 28/1(best price). Its been a decade since a European won here but Harringtons wins over the past two seasons has promoted Europeans to the forefront of world golf so we can expect a challenge. Phil is a fantastic ambassador for the game and his attacking play would make him possibly an even more popular winner than (dare I say it) Tiger Woods.
My heart is screaming Padraig Harrington but I just feel his game is a little off to win. I did not back Harrington in a major for the first time in a while when he won the 2007 British Open. Out of superstition, I did not back him in any other majors and he won two more so I will leave this bet alone and hope he does the business.
Elsewhere, Luke Donald was showing some great form after returning from injury before pulling out of the World Accenture with a recurrence. At 6/1 for a top 10 finish, provided fit, this is good value.
Finally, Fred Couples missed the cut at the Masters last year for the first time in his 24 year history of playing there. He is 7/1 for a top 10 place and coming off a 3rd place finish last week. Although more of a heart ruling head bet, it is perhaps worth a tiny flutter…..Now wouldnt that be some story!!
Let me know your thoughts/tips etc. You can leave a comment by clicking on “Add Comment” below and of course, you dont have to divulge your real name (so if you are shy, choose a nickname).
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