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St Judes Classic Preview: Toms Tipped for Top!

This weeks PGA Tour event is the St. Jude Classic which will again take place at TPC Southwind, the 21st consecutive season it has hosted the event. Last year,  the par-70 TPC Southwind showed its teeth as the field was an average of more than 2 over for the week. Two of the holes ranked among the top 50 most-difficult on the PGA TOUR in 2008.

Two men making headline grabbing returns for different reasons are Phil Mickelson and John Daly. It is an emotional return for Mickelson after his wife Amy was recently diagnosed with cancer. It would be a truly wonderful story if “Lefty” could win this week in what will surely be a roller coaster week emotionally for the family loving American. John Daly returns in different circumstances, after his 6 month suspension. After listening to Daly speak, it does appear like his head is in the right place as he spoke of taking things for granted and the opportunity the lies ahead in order for him to resurrect his career. While he was quite honest, the big question remains about whether or not Daly can maintain his focus on golf and avoid the other demons surrounding his life. While I deeply hope he can progress again from here because he is such a talent, I can’t help but remain skeptical.

So, who can perform well this week? David Toms has been a little disappointing any time I have tipped him this season but is difficult to oppose this week. He is a two time winner of this tournament having lifted the title in 2003 and 2004 and is currently #1 in driving accuracy and #4 in scoring average this season. Toms has also finished in the top 10, six of the last seven years so he clearly is fond of the place. He did however fail to make the top 10 last year and the course has been lengthened since his wins here. At 14/1 also, it could be argued he does not represent enough value as he has not won on tour since 2006. However I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt this week.

Elsewhere, Brian Gay is at 35/1 and possibly offers the best value of the entire field. He has a good track record here and is third in driving accuracy this season with 72% of fairways hit. His last competitive round was also a 64 at the Crowne Plaza invitational so he looks to be moving in the right direction again after his huge 10-shot win at the Verizon Heritage. By his own admission, he likes it when the wind picks up and the course plays hard so this week could see him prosper. I think he is worth an each way bet at 35/1.

Finally, some other notable players to look out for are Justin Leonard, who like Toms has a fantastic record here. I debated tipping him but marginally favored Toms…marginally! Do not be surprised to see Leonard hovering near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening. Sergio Garcia has also seen his putting improve over the past few weeks at Sawgrass and the European Open. If this continues to be the case this week, Sergio will not be far away. He is an exceptional talent and it cant be long before he starts challenging again. A decent finish this week and it will be certainly put him back in with a chance of lifting the upcoming US Open.

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