Another Masterclass from Maestro Mickelson?
Sergio Garcia defends the PLAYERS Championship this week in Ponte Verda Florida at Sawgrass, a course not far behind Augusta in terms of beauty and class. Known as the unofficial 5th major, it offers exemptions into majors etc and is one the pro’s all want to win. Garcia last year defeated Paul Goydos in a playoff to finally show some of the promise he possesses.
This year sees the return of Tiger Woods and needless to say, he dominates the betting. At best priced 4/1, Woods will have plenty of followers this week and I must admit I was tempted. Woods is sure to win soon and after disappointing in the final round of the Quail Championship, he might feel like something he has something to prove this week. However, when you look at the previous performances of Woods here at the PLAYERS, it is less than spectacular. Woods did win the event in 2001 but has only had one top ten since then. Add to the fact that his putting, along with his long game is just not quite there at the moment and we think there is enough evidence to look elsewhere.
Other players we considered but eventually overlooked were Sean O’Hair (25/1), Geoff Ogilvy (30/1), Kenny Perry (33/1) and Jim Furyk (40/1). It wouldn’t surprise us if any of these were to win but we just feel like there are a few others out there offering excellent value. Indeed, from speaking with people and reading various commentary on the build up to the PLAYERS, Jim Furyk is many peoples fancy this week.
Padraig Harringon (45/1), Sergio Garcia (40/1) and Henrik Stenson (50/1) will be expected to fly the European flag high this week but unfortunately it is difficult to back either of them on current form. Harrington is in self destruct mode out there at the moment, Garcia is apparently on his third putter already this season and Stenson just hasn’t kicked into action yet.
So who do we fancy this week? Well by now you will probably know that we have huge admiration for Phil Mickelson (11/1), both in the way he conducts himself on the course and for his attacking play. We can honestly say we would prefer to watch 18 holes of Mickelson than Woods or any other golfer for that matter. But this is not a sentimental tip. Phil is on fire this year having won twice and added a host of top tens. He won the PLAYERS in 2007 and has made 7 consecutive cuts also here and so, at 11/1, we are sticking with him. We have tipped him twice this season already and he has been placed each time. Keep the faith this week and you might very well be rewarded.
Ian Poulter (60/1) is beginning to show some good form and had a strong finish last week at Quail Hollow. Poulter certainly has the talent but needs a breakthrough to convince everyone. He has made four out of five cuts at Sawgrass and had three consecutive top 30 finishes. He is also a solid iron player, a must for this week in our view. Has great each way credential here this week.
It is this emphasis on strong iron play that leads us to recommend you consider Luke Donald (40/1) also for an each way bet. He has also been in great form and we think he is one of the best iron players on tour these days. Combining all of this with odds of 40/1 mean we think he is a standout this week.
Finally, Stephen Ames can be got at 70/1. Ames won this event in 2006, finished fifth last year and was second in 2002. Around Sawgrass, this form cannot be ignored. We would be dubious as to his ability to win outright but 13/2 for a top-10 finish looks like value.
Verdict
Phil Mickelson (11/1) will have the top prize handed back to him by Garcia this year after he relinquished his title to the Spaniard last year but don’t be surprised if there is an English challenge from Ian Poulter or Luke Donald (35/1). Stephen Ames can claim a top ten finish at 13/2 to wrap up a great week.
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